Commercial Truck Value Retention: A Data-Driven Analysis
A comprehensive analysis of commercial truck listing data reveals significant differences in how various manufacturers and models retain value over time. This study examined heavy-duty commercial vehicles, focusing exclusively on major manufacturers.
A comprehensive analysis of commercial truck listing data reveals significant differences in how various manufacturers and models retain value over time. This study examined heavy-duty commercial vehicles, focusing exclusively on major manufacturers.
Methodology
The analysis used multiple regression to separate two distinct depreciation factors:
- Age Effect: Value loss per year when mileage remains constant
- Mileage Effect: Value loss per 10,000 miles when age remains constant
This approach distinguishes between depreciation caused by time versus usage, providing a more nuanced view than simple age-based calculations. Only models with sufficient sample sizes were included to ensure statistical reliability.
The dataset included trucks from 41 manufacturers across a broad time range, focusing on heavy-duty commercial vehicles.
Top Performers in Value Retention
Age-Based Analysis
When examining simple annual depreciation rates, several models demonstrated exceptional value retention:
| Manufacturer | Model | Annual Depreciation | Mileage Effect (per 10k mi) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Star | 4700 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 55 |
| Peterbilt | 379 | 2.3% | 0.1% | 65 |
| Freightliner | Columbia 120 | 3.1% | 0.2% | 54 |
| Kenworth | T800 | 3.9% | 0.6% | 259 |
| Kenworth | T370 | 4.3% | 1.2% | 90 |
Key findings from this analysis:
- The Western Star 4700 shows exceptional age-based value retention, losing less than 1% of value annually
- Peterbilt 379 demonstrates remarkable mileage resistance, with virtually no value loss from high usage
- These models significantly outperform the industry average for depreciation rates
Mileage-Normalized Analysis
When controlling for both age and mileage effects, the rankings shifted:
| Manufacturer | Model | Age Effect (per year) | Mileage Effect (per 10k mi) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenworth | W990 | 0.5% | 1.5% | 71 |
| Peterbilt | 379 | 1.6% | 0.1% | 65 |
| Freightliner | 114SD | 1.6% | 1.5% | 58 |
| Peterbilt | 389 | 2.1% | 0.7% | 423 |
| Freightliner | Columbia 120 | 3.1% | 0.2% | 54 |
Key findings from this analysis:
- The Kenworth W990 shows the lowest age-related depreciation when controlling for mileage usage
- This analysis separates time-based depreciation from usage-based depreciation, revealing true durability
- Models with low mileage effects retain value better for high-usage commercial applications
Mileage Resistance
| Manufacturer | Model | Mileage Effect (per 10k mi) | Age Effect (per year) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenworth | T280 | 0.0% | 9.9% | 79 |
| Peterbilt | 379 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 65 |
| Kenworth | W900 | 0.1% | 4.5% | 100 |
| Freightliner | Columbia 120 | 0.2% | 3.1% | 54 |
- The Kenworth T280 shows zero depreciation from mileage accumulation, indicating exceptional durability perception
- These models maintain value regardless of usage intensity, making them suitable for high-mileage operations
- Low mileage effects suggest strong market confidence in long-term mechanical reliability
Manufacturer Rankings
| Rank | Manufacturer | Value Retention | Total Depreciation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenworth | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 2 | Peterbilt | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 3 | Freightliner | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 4 | Western Star | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 5 | Mack | 46.8% | 53.2% |
Key findings from this analysis:
- Kenworth and Peterbilt maintain a significant advantage, retaining nearly 60% of original value
- The gap between top and mid-tier manufacturers exceeds 10 percentage points in value retention
- These rankings represent averages across all models and years for each manufacturer
Highest Depreciation Models
Age-Based Depreciation Leaders
| Manufacturer | Model | Annual Depreciation | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volvo | VNR64T300 | 36.7% | 172 |
| International | LT | 30.3% | 2,044 |
| International | LT625 | 28.8% | 54 |
| Mack | Anthem 64T | 21.5% | 355 |
| Volvo | VNL64T760 | 21.3% | 405 |
Key findings from this analysis:
- The Volvo VNR64T300 shows extreme depreciation, losing over one-third of its value annually
- International LT series models consistently appear among the highest depreciation rates
- Despite large sample sizes, these models show persistent value decline patterns
Mileage-Normalized High Depreciation
| Manufacturer | Model | Age Effect (per year) | Mileage Effect (per 10k mi) | R² Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International | LT | 23.5% | 1.1% | 0.63 |
| Volvo | VNR64T300 | 23.0% | 1.6% | 0.73 |
| International | LT625 | 21.7% | 1.1% | 0.83 |
| Freightliner | Cascadia 126 | 17.3% | 1.0% | 0.61 |
Key findings from this analysis:
- Even when controlling for mileage, these models show severe age-based depreciation exceeding 17% annually
- Higher R² values indicate more predictable depreciation patterns for these models
- The International LT series demonstrates consistent high depreciation across both age and mileage factors
Data Patterns
Age vs. Mileage Impact
The analysis reveals that age typically has a larger impact on depreciation than mileage for most models. However, certain vehicles show remarkable resistance to mileage-based depreciation, while others are significantly affected by high usage.
Sample Size Considerations
Models with larger sample sizes such as the Freightliner Cascadia 126 and International LT provide more reliable depreciation estimates than those with smaller samples.
R² Values
The regression models showed varying explanatory power, with R² values ranging from 0.49 to 0.83, indicating that age and mileage explain between 49% and 83% of price variation depending on the model.
Statistical Reliability
The analysis included only models with sufficient data points for statistical significance. Models with higher R² values in the regression analysis indicate more predictable depreciation patterns, while lower R² values suggest other factors beyond age and mileage significantly influence pricing.
Key Findings
- Manufacturer Hierarchy: Kenworth and Peterbilt consistently outperform other manufacturers in value retention across multiple analytical approaches.
- Mileage Resistance: Certain models, particularly from Kenworth and Peterbilt, show minimal value loss from high mileage usage.
- Rapid Depreciation: Some newer model lines, particularly from International and Volvo, demonstrate accelerated depreciation rates exceeding 20% annually.
- Model Longevity: Older, established model lines often show better value retention than newer designs with advanced features.
The data demonstrates substantial variation in commercial truck value retention, with some models depreciating ten times faster than others when controlling for age and usage patterns.